The Road Ahead For Distributed Solar In 2025

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According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), solar contributed 67% of all new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid in the first six months 2024. Thanks to federal incentives, domestic solar manufacturing has grown four times over in recent years, putting the U.S. in a strong position to meet its solar deployment goals with locally-produced panels.

American leadership in solar technology will likely continue to play a key role. U.S. companies, like First Solar, are making significant investments in innovative solar technologies, particularly in thin-film photovoltaic modules. This focus on advancing solar technology provides the U.S. with a competitive edge, even as global competitors push for cost-cutting solutions. As solar systems evolve to integrate storage solutions and microgrid capabilities, American ingenuity may help offset price advantages from abroad.

Furthermore, in recent years, many traditionally conservative states have become leaders in solar and energy storage, fueling job creation and economic growth. For example, Texas installed 5.5 GW of solar capacity in the first half of 2024, nearly doubling Florida's 2.9 GW. This surge in solar adoption emphasizes the growing role of renewable energy in national energy security, particularly in the face of extreme weather events that strain the power grid.

With the growing adoption of solar, SEIA has predicted 39,000 new manufacturing jobs by 2033 resulting from federal policies, with many of these jobs landing in red states. Solar and storage systems in these regions will be crucial to support the grid against climate-related disasters.

While tariffs can incentivize domestic production, they also risk raising energy prices for consumers, particularly if applied widely. Empirical data shows that the burden of tariff-related price hikes often falls on consumers. As the cost of imported solar equipment increases, utilities — which are not designed to absorb higher costs — tend to pass these increases on to their customers, including residential, commercial and industrial users.